So after last year’s magical baseball carpet ride with the Nationals which ended when Drew Storen pulled on that thread hanging out of the carpet and unraveled the whole thing, THIS YEAR has been a tough go of it.
Terrible fielding, slumps by almost everyone not injured and not named Werth, and the off-season free agent signings not living up to expectations have kept the Nationals at or below .500. I must admit I liked it better when they had the best record in baseball, but as I said last year was pretty magical.
And yet, and yet – even though they only have a really small (imagine two fingers held very close together) chance of making the playoffs, the chance is still above zero (imagine two fingers held very close but still separate).
Last year I said that while no one player controls the destiny of a major league baseball team, pretty much how well Bryce Harper was doing was pretty directly related to how well the Nationals were doing. This year, it has been close to the same and lately he has been doing quite well.
The key statistic for me is how many losses we have more than the teams we need to pass. It is always possible to make up deficiencies in wins (by winning) but it is impossible to reduce losses. Toward the end of a season, games behind, which includes wins and losses, can be a bit misleading.
Five teams will make the playoffs from the National League, the three division winners and two wild-cards. Let us assume that the Braves and Dodgers will win their divisions. That means that from the following teams, three will make the playoffs:
- Arizona – 63 losses (32 games left)
- Cincinnati – 58 losses (32 games left)
- Pittsburgh – 54 losses (32 games left)
- St. Louis – 54 losses (31 games left)
- Washington – 65 losses (32 games left)
So we have to pass Arizona (2 less losses) and one of Cincinnati (7 losses), Pittsburgh (11 losses) or St. Louis (11 losses).
Looking just at Cincinnati, if the Reds played .500 ball for the rest of the season (they have been at .500 for the last ten games), Washington would have to go 23 – 9 the rest of the season to tie them. While a REALLY tough path, not an impossible one.